Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #78,212 of 84,120 nationally
Brandy Oaks Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51041101014 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 2,766 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
How risky is the Brandy Oaks area of Chesterfield for landlords? Census tract 51041101014 scores 4.8/10, the Moderate tier. That is riskier than about 30% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 19% of renter households, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average household income is about $120,938 a year. About 3% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.6
Lower
Confidence 65% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 97%
Tract context
Occupied units940
Renter share2.8%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate3.0%
Median income$120,938
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
27
th percentile
Low
Within state
25
th percentile
Low
National
7
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chesterfield County and the region
Centroid at 37.3640, -77.6355 · click any tract to drill in
Why Brandy Oaks scores 1.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
State baseline
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Brandy Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 4
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 16%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 43%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.0%Food insecurity
- 6.8%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 6.2%No health insurance
- 15.3%Frequent mental distress
- 26.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Brandy Oaks
What moves this score most is supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are set by Virginia eviction laws law, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 4th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041101014
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041101014?
Census tract 51041101014 in the Brandy Oaks neighborhood scores 1.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041101014?
3.0% of residents in tract 51041101014 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,766.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041101014?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 16th, household 26th, minority 43th, housing 1th.
Q4
Is tract 51041101014 considered part of Brandy Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041101014 fall within Brandy Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q5
What share of households in tract 51041101014 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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