Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,543 of 84,120 nationally
Lexington 7 Eviction Risk: Lower , University Center
Tract 51107611002 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 5,478 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
In the Lexington 7 area of University Center, census tract 51107611002 scores 5.3/10 for eviction risk. It lands near the 48th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 26% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a moderate level, and 19% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,098 a month against an average household income of $123,009 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 63% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 47%
Owners 37%
Tract context
Occupied units2,249
Renter share63.2%
SVI overall0.56
Poverty rate14.7%
Median income$123,009
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across University Center and the region
Centroid at 39.0642, -77.4558 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lexington 7 scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from University Center
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.7% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$2,098 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from University Center
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from University Center
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from University Center
5.2
How Lexington 7 compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 56
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 45%Socioeconomic
- 12%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 86%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 100Total filings over 1 yrs
- 7.93%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.9%Peak (2016)
- 100Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.7%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.3%Food insecurity
- 8.9%SNAP enrollment
- 7.1%Transit barriers
- 9.1%No health insurance
- 15.8%Frequent mental distress
- 24.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lexington 7
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from University Center, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 10.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 56th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611002?
Census tract 51107611002 in the Lexington 7 neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611002?
Median gross rent is $2,098/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 26% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611002?
14.7% of residents in tract 51107611002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,478.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 56th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 12th, minority 73th, housing 86th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611002 considered part of Lexington 7?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611002 fall within Lexington 7 (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611002?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 100 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.93% of renter households, peaking at 7.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611002 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611002 compare to University Center overall?
Tract 51107611002 scores 3.8/10, right in line with the parent city of University Center at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from University Center; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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