Blytheville Commercial Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

The strongest single driver of the headline number is tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10. Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 3.6 to 5.6, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. Severe burden reaches 20%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 27.8% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 1.8/10. The poverty rate is 22%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Disability prevalence reaches 46.7% against a 31.5% national average, which raises the odds a reasonable-accommodation request accompanies any dispute. Running hot is housing-court posture at 7.6/10.

Filings are well documented here: 16 across 2 observed tracts. Filing activity peaked in 2002 at 0.3% of renter households. Average gross rent is $763, 11% below the Blytheville average of $855.

Recent filings have not receded much: 0.3% in 2015 against a 0.3% peak. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.2/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 4.1 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.