Tallahassee Eviction Risk: Moderate

The poverty rate is 41%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. At $796 a month, rents run 38% under what the rest of Tallahassee commands. 90% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10. Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income of $25,075, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10. 55% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Leon County average of 46.4%.

Disability prevalence runs 44.8% against 31.5% nationally. It sits 1.3 points above the Leon County average of 4.1. Adults with no health insurance runs 22.1% against 11.3% nationally.

The filing record is not thin: 1,702 evictions over 13 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2013, when 24.0% of renter households were served.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.