New Dayton Eviction Risk: Moderate

Cost burden runs 62% against 35.4% citywide, putting New Dayton 26.6% over its own city. 36.0% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10.

The poverty rate is 56%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Annualized rent equals 41% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. Disability prevalence reaches 53.5% against a 31.5% national average, which raises the odds a reasonable-accommodation request accompanies any dispute.

Well under the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. 67% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. At $790 a month, rents sit 26% under what the rest of Baton Rouge commands.

Running cool is supply constraint, at 1.5/10. Among the 58 mapped neighborhoods of Baton Rouge, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

The closest comparables inside the same city are Goodwood Homesites and Melrose Place. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.5/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.4/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.