Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
New Horizons Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 24013509002 ·
Carroll County, MD · pop 2,629 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 3.8/10, tract 24013509002 in the New Horizons area of Carroll County, MD reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,629 residents. 5% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far below the Carroll County average of 40.1%.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 65% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%Stable renters 8%Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units929
Renter share8.0%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate1.8%
Median income$146,563
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In New Horizons
Moderate
Within county
33th percentile
#25 of 37 tracts In Carroll County
Low
Within state
20th percentile
#1,176 of 1,464 tracts In Maryland
Very Low
National
38th percentile
#52,479 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Carroll County and the region
Centroid at 39.4389, -77.0949 · click any tract to drill in
Why New Horizons scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
State baseline
5.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.8
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
1.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
State baseline
5.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How New Horizons compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
21%Socioeconomic
14%Household composition
24%Racial/ethnic minority
11%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
7.7%Housing insecurity
4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
8.2%Food insecurity
6.1%SNAP enrollment
4.8%Transit barriers
5.8%No health insurance
14.7%Frequent mental distress
25.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in New Horizons
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.5/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Food insecurity runs 8.2% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 6.1% against 15.2% nationally. It sits 0.8 points below the Carroll County average of 4.6.
On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 8% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the MD average is 5.5, so this tract runs 1.7 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Model confidence here is 65%, lower than typical because some ACS inputs for this tract carry wide margins of error, so read the score as a band, not a point.
Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 24013509002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24013509002?
Census tract 24013509002 in the New Horizons neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 24013509002?
1.8% of residents in tract 24013509002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,629.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 24013509002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 14th, minority 24th, housing 11th.
Q4
Is tract 24013509002 considered part of New Horizons?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24013509002 fall within New Horizons (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q5
What share of households in tract 24013509002 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.