Beaver Dam Lake Eviction Risk: Lower

It sits 3.5 points below the Orange County average of 6.7. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.2/10.

The voucher gap is 31.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 8.1/10. Average gross rent is $2,500, 22% above the Beaver Dam Lake average.

On the high side, state political climate reads 7.3/10. That is riskier than roughly 25% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 4.5 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $134,911.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.