Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally
Lake Cliff Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Lawrence Park
Tract 42049011400 · Erie County, PA · pop 3,818 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Tract 42049011400 sits in the Lake Cliff Park area of Lawrence Park, PA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.9/10. It is home to 3,818 residents. The severe-burden share is 47%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units1,548
Renter share18.7%
SVI overall0.55
Poverty rate14.9%
Median income$71,281
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
47
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
44
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lawrence Park and the region
Centroid at 42.1494, -80.0256 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lake Cliff Park scores 3.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lawrence Park
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
14.9% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,169 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lawrence Park
9.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lawrence Park
4.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lawrence Park
8.1
How Lake Cliff Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 55
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 30%Socioeconomic
- 94%Household composition
- 23%Racial/ethnic minority
- 59%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 13%Grade B
- 10%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 42Total filings over 7 yrs
- 2.21%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.2%Peak (2006)
- 9Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 125% over the past 7 months.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lake Cliff Park
What pushes it up most is rent-regulation exposure at 9.5/10. Cost burden runs 54% here against 42.3% across Erie County. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10.
On the high side, housing-court posture reads 8.1/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 42 filings here across 7 tracked years.
The worst year on record was 2006, when 3.2% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Erie. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 2.2% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #50,654 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 19% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Erie County average of 4.3 closely.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 42049011400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049011400?
Census tract 42049011400 in the Lake Cliff Park neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42049011400?
Median gross rent is $1,169/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42049011400?
14.9% of residents in tract 42049011400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,818.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42049011400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 30th, household 94th, minority 23th, housing 59th.
Q5
Is tract 42049011400 considered part of Lake Cliff Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049011400 fall within Lake Cliff Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049011400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 42 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049011400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.21% of renter households, peaking at 3.2% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42049011400 compare to Lawrence Park overall?
Tract 42049011400 scores 3.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Lawrence Park at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lawrence Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42049011400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
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