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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Fairfield-on-the-Lake Eviction Risk: Lower , Northwest Harborcreek

Tract 42049011503 · Erie County, PA · pop 3,882 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 42049011503 covers part of the Fairfield-on-the-Lake area of Northwest Harborcreek, PA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,882 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12% Stable renters 17% Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,567
Renter share29.2%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate3.8%
Median income$81,571

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Fairfield-on-the-Lake
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Northwest Harborcreek
Very High
Within county
4 th percentile
Rank, 4th percentileLowHigh
#70 of 73 tracts In Erie County
Very Low
Within state
19 th percentile
Rank, 19th percentileLowHigh
#2,785 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Northwest Harborcreek and the region

Centroid at 42.1657, -80.0003 · click any tract to drill in

Why Fairfield-on-the-Lake scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Northwest Harborcreek
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
3.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$916 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Northwest Harborcreek
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Northwest Harborcreek
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Northwest Harborcreek
4.6

How Fairfield-on-the-Lake compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Fairfield-on-the-Lake risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.0This tracttract 0115033.6Northwest Harborcrparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 49

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 23Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 1.30%Avg annual filing rate
  • 1.9%Peak (2003)
  • 4Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 42049011503
Filings climbed 100% over the past 7 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Fairfield-on-the-Lake

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10. Against the Erie County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points. The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Court records carry 23 eviction filings across 5 observed years. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 3.1/10. Filings peaked in 2003 at 1.9% of renter households.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 1.3% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 5.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Against average income of $81,571, annual rent is just 13%.

Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 1.6 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. 42% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049011503

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049011503?

Census tract 42049011503 in the Fairfield-on-the-Lake neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049011503?

Median gross rent is $916/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049011503?

3.8% of residents in tract 42049011503 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,882.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049011503?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 88th, minority 7th, housing 91th.
Q5

Is tract 42049011503 considered part of Fairfield-on-the-Lake?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049011503 fall within Fairfield-on-the-Lake (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049011503?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 23 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 42049011503 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.30% of renter households, peaking at 1.9% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049011503 compare to Northwest Harborcreek overall?

Tract 42049011503 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Northwest Harborcreek at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Northwest Harborcreek; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049011503 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Northwest Harborcreek

Top eight tracts in Northwest Harborcreek ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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