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Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally

New Horizons Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 24013509002 · Carroll County, MD · pop 2,629 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

With a score of 3.8/10, tract 24013509002 in the New Horizons area of Carroll County, MD reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,629 residents. 5% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far below the Carroll County average of 40.1%.

Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 65% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0% Stable renters 8% Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units929
Renter share8.0%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate1.8%
Median income$146,563

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In New Horizons
Moderate
Within county
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#25 of 37 tracts In Carroll County
Low
Within state
20 th percentile
Rank, 20th percentileLowHigh
#1,176 of 1,464 tracts In Maryland
Very Low
National
38 th percentile
Rank, 38th percentileLowHigh
#52,479 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Carroll County and the region

Centroid at 39.4389, -77.0949 · click any tract to drill in

Why New Horizons scores 3.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
State baseline
5.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.8
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
1.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
State baseline
5.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0

How New Horizons compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
New Horizons risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.83.8This tracttract 509002County: 4.64.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 5.55.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 9

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in New Horizons

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.5/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Food insecurity runs 8.2% against 17.8% nationally.

SNAP participation runs 6.1% against 15.2% nationally. It sits 0.8 points below the Carroll County average of 4.6.

On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 8% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the MD average is 5.5, so this tract runs 1.7 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Model confidence here is 65%, lower than typical because some ACS inputs for this tract carry wide margins of error, so read the score as a band, not a point.

Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 24013509002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24013509002?

Census tract 24013509002 in the New Horizons neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the poverty rate in tract 24013509002?

1.8% of residents in tract 24013509002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,629.
Q3

How socially vulnerable is tract 24013509002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 14th, minority 24th, housing 11th.
Q4

Is tract 24013509002 considered part of New Horizons?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24013509002 fall within New Horizons (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q5

What share of households in tract 24013509002 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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