Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #7,836 of 84,120 nationally
Victory Gardens Eviction Risk: High
Tract 34027046500 · Morris County, NJ · pop 7,316 · 12% of tract blocks fall in Victory Gardens
With a score of 8/10, tract 34027046500 in Victory Gardens, NJ reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,316 residents. The severe-burden share is 37%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
8
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units2,668
Renter share28.5%
SVI overall0.69
Poverty rate12.3%
Median income$126,636
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
94
th percentile
Very High
Within state
82
th percentile
High
National
91
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Victory Gardens and the region
Centroid at 40.8611, -74.5733 · click any tract to drill in
Why Victory Gardens scores 8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Victory Gardens
5.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
12.3% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$1,456 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Victory Gardens
9.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Victory Gardens
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Victory Gardens
9.1
How Victory Gardens compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 69
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 55%Socioeconomic
- 41%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 89%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.8%Housing insecurity
- 6.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.5%Food insecurity
- 7.2%SNAP enrollment
- 6.9%Transit barriers
- 10.9%No health insurance
- 14.0%Frequent mental distress
- 23.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Victory Gardens
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10. 56% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Morris County average of 40.8%.
Against the Morris County average of 5.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. Running hot, housing-court posture reads 9.1/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 9/10. SNAP participation runs 7.2% against 15.2% nationally.
That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 7.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 14% of average household income of $126,636, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Statewide the NJ average is 6.0, so this tract runs 2.0 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,456, close to the Victory Gardens average.
28% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 34027046500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34027046500?
Census tract 34027046500 in Victory Gardens scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34027046500?
Median gross rent is $1,456/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34027046500?
12.3% of residents in tract 34027046500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,316.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34027046500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 69th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 55th, household 41th, minority 61th, housing 89th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 34027046500 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 34027046500 compare to Victory Gardens overall?
Tract 34027046500 scores 8/10, higher than the parent city of Victory Gardens at 7.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Victory Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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