Tract 39099811100 ·
Mahoning County, OH · pop 1,102 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 39099811100 covers part of the McGillsville area of Lowellville, OH, and scores 4.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.5/10.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%Stable renters 18%Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units502
Renter share28.5%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate19.7%
Median income$56,429
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In McGillsville
Moderate
Within parent city
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Lowellville
Moderate
Within county
45th percentile
#42 of 75 tracts In Mahoning County
Moderate
Within state
59th percentile
#1,311 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lowellville and the region
Centroid at 41.0372, -80.5422 · click any tract to drill in
Why McGillsville scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lowellville
5.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
19.7% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
$578 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lowellville
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lowellville
6.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lowellville
7.1
How McGillsville compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
50%Socioeconomic
56%Household composition
8%Racial/ethnic minority
30%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
38%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
14Total filings over 5 yrs
2.00%Avg annual filing rate
2.6%Peak (2016)
4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year2009 to 2016
Filings climbed 33% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
11.0%Housing insecurity
8.4%Utility-shutoff threat
14.3%Food insecurity
12.6%SNAP enrollment
8.0%Transit barriers
7.9%No health insurance
18.8%Frequent mental distress
32.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in McGillsville
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.7/10. 36% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Mahoning County average of 42.6%. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.4/10.
Severe burden reaches 12%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Court records carry 14 eviction filings across 5 observed years.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.6% of renter households. At $578 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of Lowellville commands.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 2.0% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Against average income of $56,429, annual rent is just 12%.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 39099811100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39099811100?
Census tract 39099811100 in the McGillsville neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39099811100?
Median gross rent is $578/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39099811100?
19.7% of residents in tract 39099811100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,102.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39099811100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 56th, minority 8th, housing 30th.
Q5
Is tract 39099811100 considered part of McGillsville?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39099811100 fall within McGillsville (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39099811100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 14 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 39099811100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.00% of renter households, peaking at 2.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39099811100 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39099811100 compare to Lowellville overall?
Tract 39099811100 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Lowellville at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lowellville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39099811100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 38% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.