Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally
McGillsville Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lowellville
Tract 39099811100 · Mahoning County, OH · pop 1,102 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 39099811100 covers the McGillsville neighborhood of Lowellville, home to 1,102 residents. For landlords it grades 5.5/10, a moderate reading. That is riskier than about 56% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 36% of renter households, a high level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $578 a month while the average household earns $56,429 a year, roughly 12% of income at the averages. Renters make up 28% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units502
Renter share28.5%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate19.7%
Median income$56,429
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
51
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lowellville and the region
Centroid at 41.0372, -80.5422 · click any tract to drill in
Why McGillsville scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lowellville
5.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
19.7% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
$578 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lowellville
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lowellville
6.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lowellville
7.1
How McGillsville compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 8%Racial/ethnic minority
- 30%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 38%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 14Total filings over 5 yrs
- 2.00%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.6%Peak (2016)
- 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 33% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.0%Housing insecurity
- 8.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.3%Food insecurity
- 12.6%SNAP enrollment
- 8.0%Transit barriers
- 7.9%No health insurance
- 18.8%Frequent mental distress
- 32.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in McGillsville
The score leans hardest on housing court bias at 7.1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lowellville, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Mahoning County average of 5.8 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 38% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 14 eviction filings here over 5 tracked years, with about 2.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 2.6% of renter households in 2016.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 39099811100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39099811100?
Census tract 39099811100 in the McGillsville neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39099811100?
Median gross rent is $578/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39099811100?
19.7% of residents in tract 39099811100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,102.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39099811100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 56th, minority 8th, housing 30th.
Q5
Is tract 39099811100 considered part of McGillsville?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39099811100 fall within McGillsville (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39099811100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 14 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 39099811100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.00% of renter households, peaking at 2.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39099811100 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39099811100 compare to Lowellville overall?
Tract 39099811100 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Lowellville at 2.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lowellville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39099811100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 38% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
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