Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally
East Bayfront Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie
Tract 42049012400 · Erie County, PA · pop 1,322 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
The East Bayfront area of Erie is where census tract 42049012400 sits, home to 1,322 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 5.1/10. That is riskier than about 41% of US census tracts.
33% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $919 a month against an average household income of $60,278 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. Renters make up 44% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units652
Renter share44.0%
SVI overall0.47
Poverty rate10.5%
Median income$60,278
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
58
th percentile
Elevated
National
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Erie and the region
Centroid at 42.1627, -80.0817 · click any tract to drill in
Why East Bayfront scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Erie
3.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
10.5% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$919 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0
How East Bayfront compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 47
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 46%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 24%Racial/ethnic minority
- 79%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 3%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 4%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 32Total filings over 7 yrs
- 2.11%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.9%Peak (2002)
- 2Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 33% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within East Bayfront. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in East Bayfront
The heaviest input here is eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Erie County average of 5.6 and below the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 32 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 2.1% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.9% of renter households in 2002.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 42049012400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049012400?
Census tract 42049012400 in the East Bayfront neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42049012400?
Median gross rent is $919/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42049012400?
10.5% of residents in tract 42049012400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,322.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42049012400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 46th, household 19th, minority 24th, housing 79th.
Q5
Is tract 42049012400 considered part of East Bayfront?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049012400 fall within East Bayfront (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049012400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 32 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049012400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.11% of renter households, peaking at 3.9% in 2002. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42049012400 compare to Erie overall?
Tract 42049012400 scores 4.1/10, lower than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42049012400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
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