Eviction Risk in East Bayfront , Erie
Tract 42049012400 · Erie County, PA · pop 1,322 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Census tract 42049012400 sits in the East Bayfront neighborhood of Erie, Pennsylvania. It has a population of 1,322 and an eviction-risk score of 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). 33% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 12% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $919/month against a median household income of $60,278 — roughly 18% rent-to-income at the medians.
Racial & ethnic composition
White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood — 1,295 residents. Source: ACS 5-year 2023 (Table B03002, tract level).
- Hispanic / Latino 1.2%
- White (non-Hispanic) 88.7%
- Black (non-Hispanic) 1%
- Asian (non-Hispanic) 0.5%
- Other / Multiracial 8.6%
How the 5.1/10 score is composed
| Signal | Score | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Filing rate (county) | 8.2 | Eviction Lab via counties |
| State political climate | 3.4 | states.state_political_baseline |
| Regional political climate | 5.1 | 2024 county presidential margin |
| Local political climate | 3.4 | Erie (inherited) |
| Rent control risk | 3.4 | Erie (inherited) |
| Eviction process difficulty | 5.0 | state law |
| Tenant organizing strength | 4.0 | Erie (inherited) |
| Housing court bias | 5.0 | Erie (inherited) |
| Economic stress (tract) | 2.6 | this tract poverty rate |
| Supply constraint (tract) | 3.2 | tract rent vs county FMR |
SVI percentile: 47
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 46%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 24%Racial/ethnic minority
- 79%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 32Total filings over 7 yrs
- 2.11%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.9%Peak (2002)
- 2Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within East Bayfront. Closest by composite score.
Dominant grade: C — definitely declining
Approximately 7% of this tract's area was graded by Home Owners' Loan Corporation appraisers in Erie. Source: Mapping Inequality (Nelson, Winling, Marciano, Connolly et al., University of Richmond) — CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
- 2.8%A (Best)
- 0.0%B (Desirable)
- 4.3%C (Declining)
- 0.0%D (Redlined)
Redlining is correlated with present-day eviction-filing rates, lower home-ownership, and greater rent burden — see Aaronson, Hartley & Mazumder (FRB Chicago, 2021). The shading above reflects 90-year-old appraisals; it is historical context, not a current credit signal.
About tract 42049012400
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049012400?
Census tract 42049012400 in the East Bayfront neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The composite blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent burden + poverty signals.
What is the median rent in tract 42049012400?
Median gross rent is $919/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
What is the poverty rate in tract 42049012400?
10.5% of residents in tract 42049012400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,322.
How socially vulnerable is tract 42049012400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 46th, household 19th, minority 24th, housing 79th.
Is tract 42049012400 considered part of East Bayfront?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049012400 fall within East Bayfront (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049012400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 32 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049012400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.11% of renter households, peaking at 3.9% in 2002. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Was tract 42049012400 redlined?
The dominant 1930s HOLC grade across this tract is C (Definitely Declining). Roughly 0% of the tract's area sits inside historically redlined (grade-D) zones drawn by Home Owners' Loan Corporation appraisers in Erie. Source: Mapping Inequality, University of Richmond.