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Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally

Walhaven Eviction Risk: Lower , Franconia

Tract 51059422402 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,245 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

With a score of 3.6/10, tract 51059422402 in the Walhaven area of Kingstowne, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,245. 40% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 7% Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units1,975
Renter share24.1%
SVI overall0.11
Poverty rate2.8%
Median income$135,885

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Walhaven
Very Low
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Franconia
Very Low
Within county
34 th percentile
Rank, 34th percentileLowHigh
#180 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#1,374 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Franconia and the region

Centroid at 38.7653, -77.1321 · click any tract to drill in

Why Walhaven scores 3.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Franconia
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,350 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Franconia
6.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Franconia
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Franconia
4.9

How Walhaven compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Walhaven risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.63.6This tracttract 422402Franconia: 4.04.0Franconiaparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 11

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 139Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 5.37%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.4%Peak (2011)
  • 33Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594224022011: 43 filings (6.35/100 renter HHs)2012: 21 filings (3.10/100 renter HHs)2013: 42 filings (6.20/100 renter HHs)2016: 33 filings (5.81/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 23% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Walhaven. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Walhaven

69% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.

On the high side, local political climate reads 8.3/10. Disability prevalence runs 19.4% against 31.5% nationally.

SNAP participation runs 5.6% against 15.2% nationally. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.

The filing record is not thin: 139 evictions over 4 years of observation. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points. The worst year on record was 2011, when 6.4% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 5.4% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #56,048 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 24% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Social vulnerability reads 2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059422402

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059422402?

Census tract 51059422402 in the Walhaven neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059422402?

Median gross rent is $2,350/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059422402?

2.8% of residents in tract 51059422402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,245.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059422402?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 11th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 42th, minority 65th, housing 3th.
Q5

Is tract 51059422402 considered part of Walhaven?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059422402 fall within Walhaven (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059422402?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 139 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059422402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.37% of renter households, peaking at 6.4% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059422402 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059422402 compare to Franconia overall?

Tract 51059422402 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Franconia at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Franconia; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Franconia

Top eight tracts in Franconia ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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