Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #18,163 of 84,120 nationally
Strathmeade Springs Eviction Risk: Elevated , Woodburn
Tract 51059440202 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 7,234 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 6/10, tract 51059440202 in the Strathmeade Springs area of Woodburn, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 7,234. Cost burden runs 54% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 43%
Tract context
Occupied units2,269
Renter share57.0%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate14.4%
Median income$101,083
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
94
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Woodburn and the region
Centroid at 38.8568, -77.2361 · click any tract to drill in
Why Strathmeade Springs scores 6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Woodburn
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.4% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$2,353 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Woodburn
7.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Woodburn
8.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Woodburn
6.4
How Strathmeade Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 70
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 56%Socioeconomic
- 62%Household composition
- 66%Racial/ethnic minority
- 78%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 614Total filings over 4 yrs
- 15.29%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.0%Peak (2011)
- 75Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 62% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.3%Housing insecurity
- 5.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.7%Food insecurity
- 7.0%SNAP enrollment
- 6.2%Transit barriers
- 8.2%No health insurance
- 13.2%Frequent mental distress
- 22.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Strathmeade Springs
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.4/10. It sits 1.7 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
The severe-burden share is 16%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. The filing record is not thin: 614 evictions over 4 years of observation.
SNAP participation runs 7.0% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
Food insecurity runs 10.7% against 17.8% nationally. Filings peaked in 2011 at 20.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 15.3% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 78% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059440202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059440202?
Census tract 51059440202 in the Strathmeade Springs neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059440202?
Median gross rent is $2,353/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059440202?
14.4% of residents in tract 51059440202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,234.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059440202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 56th, household 62th, minority 66th, housing 78th.
Q5
Is tract 51059440202 considered part of Strathmeade Springs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059440202 fall within Strathmeade Springs (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059440202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 614 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059440202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.29% of renter households, peaking at 20.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059440202 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059440202 compare to Woodburn overall?
Tract 51059440202 scores 6/10, higher than the parent city of Woodburn at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodburn; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Woodburn
Top eight tracts in Woodburn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related