Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Church Road Glen Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51087200127 · Henrico County, VA · pop 5,879 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 3/10, tract 51087200127 in the Church Road Glen area of Henrico County, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,879. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.7/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units2,344
Renter share24.9%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate1.6%
Median income$131,282
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
16
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
National
20
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Henrico County and the region
Centroid at 37.6287, -77.5933 · click any tract to drill in
Why Church Road Glen scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,022 rent vs county FMR
6.8
Rent control risk
State baseline
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Church Road Glen compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 43%Household composition
- 28%Racial/ethnic minority
- 48%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 26Total filings over 2 yrs
- 1.76%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.9%Peak (2015)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.8%Housing insecurity
- 3.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.8%Food insecurity
- 3.3%SNAP enrollment
- 3.5%Transit barriers
- 4.4%No health insurance
- 11.7%Frequent mental distress
- 26.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Church Road Glen
Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. The severe-burden share is 20%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Food insecurity runs 4.8% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Henrico County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points.
The voucher gap is 18.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Housing insecurity runs 4.8% against 14.2% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 26 filings here across 2 tracked years.
The worst year on record was 2015, when 1.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.8% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 25% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200127
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200127?
Census tract 51087200127 in the Church Road Glen neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200127?
Median gross rent is $2,022/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200127?
1.6% of residents in tract 51087200127 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,879.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200127?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 43th, minority 28th, housing 48th.
Q5
Is tract 51087200127 considered part of Church Road Glen?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200127 fall within Church Road Glen (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200127?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 26 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200127 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.76% of renter households, peaking at 1.9% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51087200127 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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