Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally
Crown Grant South Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51087200138 · Henrico County, VA · pop 4,402 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 51087200138 covers part of the Crown Grant South area of Henrico County, VA, and scores 5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,402. roughly three in four of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Henrico County average of 47.8%.
Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 83%
Tract context
Occupied units1,775
Renter share17.1%
SVI overall0.40
Poverty rate17.3%
Median income$91,058
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
68
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
77
th percentile
High
National
61
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Henrico County and the region
Centroid at 37.6167, -77.5961 · click any tract to drill in
Why Crown Grant South scores 5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.3% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,683 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
State baseline
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Crown Grant South compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 40
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 29%Socioeconomic
- 91%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 17%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.0%Food insecurity
- 6.7%SNAP enrollment
- 5.3%Transit barriers
- 5.8%No health insurance
- 14.2%Frequent mental distress
- 31.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Crown Grant South
36% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.7/10.
Food insecurity runs 8.0% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally. Against the Henrico County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points.
Nationally it ranks #32,842 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 17% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.6/10.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent runs $1,683 a month. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $91,058.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200138
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200138?
Census tract 51087200138 in the Crown Grant South neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200138?
Median gross rent is $1,683/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 74% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200138?
17.3% of residents in tract 51087200138 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,402.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200138?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 40th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 91th, minority 51th, housing 17th.
Q5
Is tract 51087200138 considered part of Crown Grant South?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200138 fall within Crown Grant South (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51087200138 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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