Neighborhood · Ranked #40,134 of 84,120 nationally

Algonquin Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51153901233 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,851 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Census tract 51153901233 covers the Algonquin Hills neighborhood of Prince William, home to 6,851 residents. For landlords it grades 5.7/10, a moderate reading. That is riskier than about 63% of US census tracts.

59% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average household income is about $212,400 a year. About 1% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

4.8

Moderate

Confidence 65% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 1% Stable renters 1% Owners 98%

Tract context

Occupied units2,268

Renter share1.4%

SVI overall0.18

Poverty rate5.4%

Median income$212,400

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Prince William County and the region

Centroid at 38.6801, -77.4247 · click any tract to drill in

Why Algonquin Hills scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

State baseline

3.2

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

5.4% poverty · this tract

1.3

Supply constraint

tract rent vs county FMR

5.0

Rent control risk

State baseline

3.2

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

State baseline

4.0

Housing court bias

State baseline

5.0

How Algonquin Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

10%Socioeconomic
46%Household composition
45%Racial/ethnic minority
23%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

19Total filings over 1 yrs
26.76%Avg annual filing rate
26.8%Peak (2016)
19Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.9%Housing insecurity
5.7%Utility-shutoff threat
10.1%Food insecurity
7.3%SNAP enrollment
5.9%Transit barriers
7.7%No health insurance
14.7%Frequent mental distress
27.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Algonquin Hills

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are set by Virginia eviction laws law, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 19 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 26.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 26.8% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901233

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901233?

Census tract 51153901233 in the Algonquin Hills neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901233?

5.4% of residents in tract 51153901233 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,851.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901233?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 46th, minority 45th, housing 23th.

Is tract 51153901233 considered part of Algonquin Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901233 fall within Algonquin Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901233?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 19 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901233 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 26.76% of renter households, peaking at 26.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901233 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.