Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,930 of 84,120 nationally
Tuckers Creek Eviction Risk: Elevated , Newport News
Tract 51700030400 · Newport News city, VA · pop 4,385 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51700030400, home to 4,385 residents in Tuckers Creek in Newport News, scores 6.5/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 86% of US census tracts.
About 47% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,098 monthly, set against $43,289 in average yearly household income, roughly 30% of income at the averages. Renters make up 71% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33%
Stable renters 37%
Owners 30%
Tract context
Occupied units1,294
Renter share70.7%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate38.3%
Median income$43,289
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
96
th percentile
Very High
Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newport News and the region
Centroid at 36.9841, -76.4208 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tuckers Creek scores 6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newport News
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
38.3% poverty · this tract
9.6
Supply constraint
$1,098 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newport News
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newport News
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newport News
4.5
How Tuckers Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 89
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 96%Socioeconomic
- 43%Household composition
- 97%Racial/ethnic minority
- 77%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 41%Grade C
- 121%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,376Total filings over 5 yrs
- 58.65%Avg annual filing rate
- 70.1%Peak (2015)
- 431Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 31.9%Housing insecurity
- 25.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 42.2%Food insecurity
- 45.8%SNAP enrollment
- 21.2%Transit barriers
- 14.4%No health insurance
- 22.2%Frequent mental distress
- 45.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tuckers Creek
The heaviest input here is economic stress at 9.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Newport News eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Newport News City County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 121% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.
The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 89th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51700030400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700030400?
Census tract 51700030400 in the Tuckers Creek neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51700030400?
Median gross rent is $1,098/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51700030400?
38.3% of residents in tract 51700030400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,385.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51700030400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 43th, minority 97th, housing 77th.
Q5
Is tract 51700030400 considered part of Tuckers Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700030400 fall within Tuckers Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51700030400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,376 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 51700030400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 58.65% of renter households, peaking at 70.1% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51700030400 struggle to pay rent?
About 31.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 25.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51700030400 compare to Newport News overall?
Tract 51700030400 scores 6/10, higher than the parent city of Newport News at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51700030400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 121% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newport News
Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Ivy Park
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Newsome
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Christophers Shores
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Eastwood
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Village Green
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North End
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Hidenwood
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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