Neighborhood · Ranked #40,134 of 84,120 nationally

Heritage Village Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51153901504 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,756 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Tract 51153901504, home to 4,756 residents in Heritage Village in Prince William, scores 5.7/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 63% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 51% of renter households, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,636 monthly, set against $111,350 in average yearly household income, roughly 28% of income at the averages. About 14% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

4.8

Moderate

Confidence 80% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 7% Owners 86%

Tract context

Occupied units2,578

Renter share14.2%

SVI overall0.30

Poverty rate3.4%

Median income$111,350

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Prince William County and the region

Centroid at 38.8103, -77.5880 · click any tract to drill in

Why Heritage Village scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

State baseline

3.2

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

3.4% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,636 rent vs county FMR

6.4

Rent control risk

State baseline

3.2

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

State baseline

4.0

Housing court bias

State baseline

5.0

How Heritage Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 30

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

10%Socioeconomic
82%Household composition
45%Racial/ethnic minority
32%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

4Total filings over 1 yrs
1.21%Avg annual filing rate
1.2%Peak (2016)
4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

3.6%Housing insecurity
2.3%Utility-shutoff threat
4.7%Food insecurity
3.2%SNAP enrollment
3.0%Transit barriers
5.2%No health insurance
9.0%Frequent mental distress
34.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Heritage Village

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 6.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are set by Virginia eviction laws law, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 4 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 1.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 1.2% of renter households in 2016.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 30th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901504

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901504?

Census tract 51153901504 in the Heritage Village neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901504?

Median gross rent is $2,636/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901504?

3.4% of residents in tract 51153901504 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,756.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901504?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 82th, minority 45th, housing 32th.

Is tract 51153901504 considered part of Heritage Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901504 fall within Heritage Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901504?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 4 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901504 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.21% of renter households, peaking at 1.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901504 struggle to pay rent?

About 3.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.