Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Forestdale Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 01073012402 · Jefferson County, AL · pop 2,624 · 55% of tract blocks fall in Forestdale
Tract 01073012402 sits in Forestdale, AL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.4/10. It is home to 2,624 residents. 47% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units1,199
Renter share43.0%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate38.3%
Median income$37,390
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
85
th percentile
High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
National
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Forestdale and the region
Centroid at 33.5609, -86.9134 · click any tract to drill in
Why Forestdale scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Forestdale
6.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
Alabama legislature & governorship
1.8
Economic stress
38.3% poverty · this tract
9.6
Supply constraint
$1,197 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Forestdale
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Forestdale
6.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Forestdale
7.6
How Forestdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 70%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 49%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 11%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 314Total filings over 11 yrs
- 8.67%Avg annual filing rate
- 15.3%Peak (2013)
- 41Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 356% over the past 11 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 25.5%Housing insecurity
- 21.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 36.0%Food insecurity
- 32.8%SNAP enrollment
- 17.7%Transit barriers
- 11.7%No health insurance
- 19.7%Frequent mental distress
- 44.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Forestdale
Cost burden runs 68% here against 46.3% across Jefferson County. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 9.6/10. The poverty rate is 38%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income of $37,390, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Food insecurity runs 36.0% against 17.8% nationally. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.5/10.
Running cool, state political climate reads 1.8/10. Housing insecurity runs 25.5% against 14.2% nationally. It sits 1.1 points above the Jefferson County average of 4.3.
Court records carry 314 eviction filings across 11 observed years. Filings peaked in 2013 at 15.3% of renter households.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 8.7% of renter households face a filing.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 01073012402
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 01073012402?
Census tract 01073012402 in Forestdale scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 01073012402?
Median gross rent is $1,197/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 01073012402?
38.3% of residents in tract 01073012402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,624.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 01073012402?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 70th, minority 76th, housing 49th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 01073012402?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 314 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 01073012402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.67% of renter households, peaking at 15.3% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 01073012402 struggle to pay rent?
About 25.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 21.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 01073012402 compare to Forestdale overall?
Tract 01073012402 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Forestdale at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Forestdale; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 01073012402 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 11% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Forestdale
Top eight tracts in Forestdale ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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