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Census Tract · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally

Blackwater Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04021941200 · Pinal, AZ · pop 6,907 · 21% of tract blocks fall in Blackwater

Census tract 04021941200 covers part of Blackwater, AZ, and scores 5/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,907 residents. Cost burden runs 5% here against 37.6% across Pinal County.

Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 27% Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,905
Renter share28.6%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate32.6%
Median income$50,679

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Blackwater
Moderate
Within county
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 95 tracts In Pinal
High
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#165 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
National
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#32,842 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Blackwater and the region

Centroid at 33.0827, -111.6927 · click any tract to drill in

Why Blackwater scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Blackwater
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
32.6% poverty · this tract
8.2
Supply constraint
$363 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Blackwater
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Blackwater
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Blackwater
2.0

How Blackwater compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Blackwater risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.05.0This tracttract 941200Blackwater: 3.63.6Blackwaterparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 91

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Blackwater

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Disability prevalence runs 51.9% against 31.5% nationally. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10.

The poverty rate is 33%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 26.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Running hot, economic stress reads 8.2/10.

Against the Pinal County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. On the national scale it lands near the 61st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 9.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Rent consumes only 9% of average household income of $50,679, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Average gross rent is $363, close to the Blackwater average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04021941200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04021941200?

Census tract 04021941200 in Blackwater scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04021941200?

Median gross rent is $363/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 5% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04021941200?

32.6% of residents in tract 04021941200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,907.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04021941200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 68th, minority 96th, housing 94th.
Q5

What share of households in tract 04021941200 struggle to pay rent?

About 33.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 26.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6

How does tract 04021941200 compare to Blackwater overall?

Tract 04021941200 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Blackwater at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Blackwater; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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