Orinda Eviction Risk: Moderate

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. Against the Contra Costa County average of 6.8, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.9 points.

58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Contra Costa County average of 48.7%. Food insecurity runs 4.8% against 17.8% nationally.

On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10. SNAP participation runs 3.8% against 15.2% nationally.

The voucher gap is 18.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.5/10.

Average gross rent is $3,188, 9% below the Orinda average. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground A ("Best"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 15% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.