Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #81,634 of 84,120 nationally
Armstrong Eviction Risk: Lower , Independence
Tract 27053027002 · Hennepin County, MN · pop 5,498 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Here is how census tract 27053027002, in the Armstrong neighborhood of Independence, looks to a landlord: a 5.4/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 5,498. It lands near the 53rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 55% of renter households, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,205 a month against an average household income of $130,263 a year, roughly 11% of income at the averages. Renters make up 19% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units2,060
Renter share19.2%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate3.7%
Median income$130,263
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
11
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
9
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Independence and the region
Centroid at 45.0156, -93.7110 · click any tract to drill in
Why Armstrong scores 1.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Independence
5.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.2
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
3.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,205 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Independence
9.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Independence
2.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Independence
5.7
How Armstrong compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 28
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 13%Socioeconomic
- 50%Household composition
- 17%Racial/ethnic minority
- 58%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 68Total filings over 5 yrs
- 4.38%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.3%Peak (2012)
- 16Filings in 2013 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 45% over the past 5 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 27Total filings 2020-21
- 0.4Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.9Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.38×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.6%Food insecurity
- 4.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.1%Transit barriers
- 5.6%No health insurance
- 13.4%Frequent mental distress
- 24.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Armstrong
What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 9.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Independence, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Hennepin County average of 5.6 and above the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 6.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.38x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, well below the pre-pandemic norm, the signature of an eviction moratorium at work.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 27053027002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27053027002?
Census tract 27053027002 in the Armstrong neighborhood scores 1.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27053027002?
Median gross rent is $1,205/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27053027002?
3.7% of residents in tract 27053027002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,498.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27053027002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 50th, minority 17th, housing 58th.
Q5
Is tract 27053027002 considered part of Armstrong?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27053027002 fall within Armstrong (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27053027002?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 68 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 27053027002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.38% of renter households, peaking at 5.3% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27053027002 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.38× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27053027002 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27053027002 compare to Independence overall?
Tract 27053027002 scores 1.2/10, lower than the parent city of Independence at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Independence; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Related