Natchez Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

27% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. The poverty rate is 34%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. The strongest single driver of the headline number is tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10.

Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 3.5 to 5.5, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 1.7/10.

Food insecurity affects 34.3% of adults, 16.5 points above the national rate. On the high side is housing-court posture at 8.1/10.

SNAP participation is 26.9% of households versus 15.2% nationally. Average gross rent is $684, 15% below the Natchez average of $806. Social vulnerability runs high at 8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Against average income of $46,659, annual rent is only 18%, a wide affordability cushion. 38% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.