Hayes Homes Eviction Risk: Moderate , Greenwood

Housing insecurity runs 36.7% against 14.2% nationally. The severe-burden share is 29%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 28.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The poverty rate is 34%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $23,545, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Running hot, economic stress reads 8.5/10. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.8/10.

That is riskier than roughly 67% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the MS average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

It tracks the Leflore County average of 4.8 closely.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.