Heart of Missoula Eviction Risk: Moderate

92% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. 28% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $28,594 and the ratio lands at 35%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. The poverty rate is 32%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Average gross rent is $840, 29% below the Missoula average. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.7/10. It sits 1.5 points above the Missoula County average of 4.2.

On the high side, economic stress reads 8.1/10. That is riskier than roughly 74% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the MT average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.9 points hotter.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.