Newark Eviction Risk: High

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.7/10. Against the Essex County average of 7.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.6 points.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 9/10. Housing insecurity runs 33.0% against 14.2% nationally.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. 68% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 22.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The poverty rate is 22%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Court records carry 1,037 eviction filings across 6 observed years. At $1,260 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of Newark commands. Filings peaked in 2017 at 26.7% of renter households.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Essex Co. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 23.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 100% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.4/10. Statewide the NJ average is 6.0, so this tract runs 3.9 points hotter.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.