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Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally

Winding Brook Eviction Risk: Lower , Morganville

Tract 34025809504 · Monmouth County, NJ · pop 2,592 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Tract 34025809504 sits in the Winding Brook area of Morganville, NJ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.7/10. It is home to 2,592 residents. The severe-burden share is 100%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3% Stable renters 0% Owners 97%
Tract context
Occupied units718
Renter share2.8%
SVI overall0.20
Poverty rate4.3%
Median income$230,833

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Winding Brook
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Morganville
Very High
Within county
11 th percentile
Rank, 11th percentileLowHigh
#137 of 154 tracts In Monmouth County
Very Low
Within state
12 th percentile
Rank, 12th percentileLowHigh
#1,918 of 2,175 tracts In New Jersey
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Morganville and the region

Centroid at 40.3557, -74.2289 · click any tract to drill in

Why Winding Brook scores 3.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Morganville
5.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
4.3% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Morganville
5.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Morganville
3.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Morganville
4.0

How Winding Brook compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Winding Brook risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.7This tracttract 8095044.4Morganvilleparent city5.7Countyavg tract in county6.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 20

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Winding Brook

Against Monmouth County at 47.3%, 100% of renters here are cost-burdened. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.1/10. Against the Monmouth County average of 5.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 2.0 points.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.5/10. Disability prevalence runs 17.2% against 31.5% nationally.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 4.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Nationally it ranks #54,273 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Only 3% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the NJ average is 6.0, so this tract runs 2.3 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 34025809504

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34025809504?

Census tract 34025809504 in the Winding Brook neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the poverty rate in tract 34025809504?

4.3% of residents in tract 34025809504 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,592.
Q3

How socially vulnerable is tract 34025809504?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 20th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 17th, household 14th, minority 60th, housing 37th.
Q4

Is tract 34025809504 considered part of Winding Brook?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 34025809504 fall within Winding Brook (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q5

What share of households in tract 34025809504 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6

How does tract 34025809504 compare to Morganville overall?

Tract 34025809504 scores 3.7/10, lower than the parent city of Morganville at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Morganville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Morganville

Top eight tracts in Morganville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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