Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #63,308 of 84,120 nationally
Bay Head Junction Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 34029739200 · Ocean County, NJ · pop 2,507 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
34029739200 is a census tract in the Bay Head Junction area of Bay Head, NJ. It scores 3.2/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,507 residents. The severe-burden share is 36%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,140
Renter share7.5%
SVI overall0.16
Poverty rate2.9%
Median income$181,786
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
10
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
6
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bay Head and the region
Centroid at 40.0669, -74.0464 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bay Head Junction scores 3.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bay Head
5.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.6
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
2.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,712 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bay Head
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bay Head
3.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bay Head
6.3
How Bay Head Junction compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 16
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 10%Socioeconomic
- 23%Household composition
- 17%Racial/ethnic minority
- 44%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bay Head Junction. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.0%Housing insecurity
- 2.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.4%Food insecurity
- 2.3%SNAP enrollment
- 3.1%Transit barriers
- 4.2%No health insurance
- 10.0%Frequent mental distress
- 22.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bay Head Junction
The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 9.6/10. Against Ocean County at 50.5%, 36% of renters here are cost-burdened.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.7/10. Against the Ocean County average of 5.0, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.8 points.
At $1,712 a month, rents run 20% over what the rest of Bay Head commands. Housing insecurity runs 4.0% against 14.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 2.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
On the national scale it lands near the 25th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 8% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.5/10. Rent consumes only 11% of average household income of $181,786, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Statewide the NJ average is 6.0, so this tract runs 2.8 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 34029739200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34029739200?
Census tract 34029739200 in the Bay Head Junction neighborhood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34029739200?
Median gross rent is $1,712/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34029739200?
2.9% of residents in tract 34029739200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,507.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34029739200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 23th, minority 17th, housing 44th.
Q5
Is tract 34029739200 considered part of Bay Head Junction?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 34029739200 fall within Bay Head Junction (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 34029739200 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 34029739200 compare to Bay Head overall?
Tract 34029739200 scores 3.2/10, lower than the parent city of Bay Head at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bay Head; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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