2 census tracts · pop 8,003 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.3/10
· range 5.7–7.3
North Lake Carmel is a 2-tract neighborhood of Lake Carmel, NY and houses 8,003 people. The Eviction Risk Score is 6.3/10, in the Elevated tier. Against a Lake Carmel baseline of 39.9%, 61% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
Severe burden reaches 30%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The strongest single driver of the headline number is rent-regulation exposure at 8.9/10. Average gross rent is $2,078, 33% above the Lake Carmel average of $1,565.
Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 5.7 to 7.3, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. On the softer side is economic stress, at 2.4/10.
Running cool is supply constraint, at 2.8/10. At 13% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $109,164.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.6 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
6.3
Elevated
2 tracts · population-weighted
North Lake Carmel vs Lake CarmelHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
61.3%+54%
Lake Carmel: 39.9%
Average gross rent
$2,078+33%
Lake Carmel: $1,565
Average HH income
$109,164-10%
Lake Carmel: $121,402
Poverty rate
9.4%+2%
Lake Carmel: 9.2%
Renter share
13.4%-5%
Lake Carmel: 14.1%
Geographic context
Risk heat across North Lake Carmel and the region
Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 5.7–7.3
Why North Lake Carmel scores 6.3
9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 7.3–7.3 across tracts
7.3
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 4.6–4.6 across tracts
4.6
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts
5.1
Rent control risk
61% of income on rent · Range 8.9–8.9 across tracts
8.9
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Tenant organizing strength
13% renter households · Range 3.4–3.4 across tracts
3.4
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 6.9–6.9 across tracts
6.9
Economic stress
9.4% below poverty line · Range 1.9–3.1 across tracts
2.4
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–4.1 across tracts
2.8
Risk score comparison
North Lake Carmel vs. parent city, state, U.S.
Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).
Census tracts
2 tracts in North Lake Carmel
Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority54%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport19%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in North Lake Carmel
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
11.6%Housing insecurity
6.4%Utility shutoff threat
12.6%Food insecurity
9.8%SNAP enrollment
7.5%No health insurance
24.4%Any disability
Frequently asked
About North Lake Carmel
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for North Lake Carmel?
North Lake Carmel scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does North Lake Carmel compare to Lake Carmel overall?
North Lake Carmel scores 0.4 points higher than Lake Carmel overall (5.9/10). Renters spend 61% of income on rent vs 40% citywide. Average rent: $2,078 vs $1,565.
Q3
What is the average rent in North Lake Carmel?
Average gross rent in North Lake Carmel is $2,078/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of North Lake Carmel residents are renters?
13% of North Lake Carmel households are renter-occupied (vs 14% in Lake Carmel). The neighborhood has 8,003 residents.
Q5
Is North Lake Carmel a high social-vulnerability area?
North Lake Carmel sits in the 24th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in North Lake Carmel have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in North Lake Carmel is census tract 36079010400 (score 7.3/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.7 to 7.3, a spread of 1.6 points.
Q7
How safe is North Lake Carmel for landlords?
North Lake Carmel carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.3/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Lake Carmel as a whole (5.9/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of North Lake Carmel?
North Lake Carmel has 7,993 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (60.8%), Hispanic / Latino (27.8%), Black (non-Hispanic) (5.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
