Tioga Eviction Risk: High

Annualized rent equals 43% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. The severe-burden share is 28%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.

The poverty rate is 33%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. What pushes the score up most is economic stress at 8.3/10. Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 1.7/10.

At $1,120 a month, rents sit 20% under what the rest of Philadelphia commands. Court records carry 534 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts. Sitting well above the midpoint is eviction-process difficulty at 7.5/10.

The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 10.9% of renter households. That places it #1 of 152 neighborhoods in Philadelphia. Judgments average 4.9% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.

For a like-for-like read, Mantua and Franklinville score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

With little internal variation, 8/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.