Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally
Avra Valley Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04019004419 · Pima, AZ · pop 6,564 · 83% of tract blocks fall in Avra Valley
Tract 04019004419, home to 6,564 residents in Avra Valley in Pima County, scores 4.9/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 37% of US census tracts.
20% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 6% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average household income is about $53,052 a year. Renters make up 24% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units2,409
Renter share23.6%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate19.6%
Median income$53,052
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
75
th percentile
Elevated
National
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Avra Valley and the region
Centroid at 32.4435, -111.3216 · click any tract to drill in
Why Avra Valley scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Avra Valley
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
19.6% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Avra Valley
2.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Avra Valley
5.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Avra Valley
5.4
How Avra Valley compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 70
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 70%Socioeconomic
- 68%Household composition
- 46%Racial/ethnic minority
- 66%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 43Total filings over 8 yrs
- 1.24%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.9%Peak (2016)
- 11Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 38% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.1%Housing insecurity
- 12.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.5%Food insecurity
- 22.0%SNAP enrollment
- 12.7%Transit barriers
- 13.3%No health insurance
- 20.3%Frequent mental distress
- 43.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Avra Valley
The score leans hardest on housing court bias at 5.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Avra Valley, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Pima County average of 5.5 and in line with the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 43 eviction filings here over 8 tracked years, with about 1.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 2.9% of renter households in 2016.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 70th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004419
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004419?
Census tract 04019004419 in Avra Valley scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004419?
19.6% of residents in tract 04019004419 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,564.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004419?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 70th, household 68th, minority 46th, housing 66th.
Q4
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004419?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 43 eviction filings across 8 validated years in tract 04019004419 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.24% of renter households, peaking at 2.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q5
What share of households in tract 04019004419 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 04019004419 compare to Avra Valley overall?
Tract 04019004419 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Avra Valley at 3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Avra Valley; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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