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Neighborhood · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally

Shell Ridge Eviction Risk: Moderate , Walnut Creek

Tract 06013338302 · Contra Costa, CA · pop 5,513 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Census tract 06013338302 covers part of the Shell Ridge area of Walnut Creek, CA, and scores 5.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,513. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 9% Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,981
Renter share14.3%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate1.0%
Median income$204,435

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Shell Ridge
Moderate
Within parent city
15 th percentile
Rank, 15th percentileLowHigh
#18 of 21 tracts In Walnut Creek
Very Low
Within county
36 th percentile
Rank, 36th percentileLowHigh
#154 of 241 tracts In Contra Costa
Low
Within state
21 th percentile
Rank, 21st percentileLowHigh
#7,225 of 9,109 tracts In California
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Walnut Creek and the region

Centroid at 37.9066, -122.0146 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shell Ridge scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Walnut Creek
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
1.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,167 rent vs county FMR
6.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Walnut Creek
5.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Walnut Creek
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Walnut Creek
4.6

How Shell Ridge compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Shell Ridge risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.9This tracttract 3383027.0Walnut Creekparent city6.8Countyavg tract in county7.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 13

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shell Ridge

Cost burden runs 40% here against 48.7% across Contra Costa County. SNAP participation runs 3.6% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10.

The voucher gap is 18.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $3,167, 18% above the Walnut Creek average.

Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.5/10. It sits 0.9 points below the Contra Costa County average of 6.8. Adults with no health insurance runs 2.9% against 11.3% nationally.

On the national scale it lands near the 77th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 14% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.6 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06013338302

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06013338302?

Census tract 06013338302 in the Shell Ridge neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06013338302?

Median gross rent is $3,167/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06013338302?

1.0% of residents in tract 06013338302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,513.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06013338302?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 20th, minority 59th, housing 23th.
Q5

Is tract 06013338302 considered part of Shell Ridge?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06013338302 fall within Shell Ridge (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06013338302 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06013338302 compare to Walnut Creek overall?

Tract 06013338302 scores 5.9/10, lower than the parent city of Walnut Creek at 7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Walnut Creek; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Walnut Creek

Top eight tracts in Walnut Creek ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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