Aurora Eviction Risk: Lower

The voucher gap is 37.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 8.7/10. It sits 1.4 points below the Arapahoe County average of 4.7.

9% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 11% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

Social vulnerability reads 3.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CO average is 4.9, so this tract runs 1.6 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 49% of renters.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.