Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally
Midvale Eviction Risk: Moderate , New Castle
Tract 10003016309 · New Castle County, DE · pop 3,574 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 10003016309 sits in the Midvale area of New Castle eviction risk, DE, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5/10. Population here is 3,574. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 60%
Tract context
Occupied units1,715
Renter share40.1%
SVI overall0.55
Poverty rate12.7%
Median income$62,535
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
76
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across New Castle and the region
Centroid at 39.6579, -75.6072 · click any tract to drill in
Why Midvale scores 5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from New Castle
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.9
State political climate
Delaware legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.7% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,272 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from New Castle
2.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from New Castle
7.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from New Castle
2.6
How Midvale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 55
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 46%Socioeconomic
- 18%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 78%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 1,253Total filings 2020-21
- 16.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 15.0Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.09×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tampa, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.1%Housing insecurity
- 10.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.2%Food insecurity
- 16.9%SNAP enrollment
- 10.3%Transit barriers
- 9.8%No health insurance
- 16.6%Frequent mental distress
- 31.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Midvale
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.4/10. At $1,272 a month, rents run 27% under what the rest of New Castle commands.
On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.1/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.6/10.
Against New Castle County at 44.1%, 49% of renters here are cost-burdened. Against the New Castle County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points. Nationally it ranks #32,842 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the DE average is 4.1, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $62,535. 40% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 10003016309
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 10003016309?
Census tract 10003016309 in the Midvale neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 10003016309?
Median gross rent is $1,272/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 10003016309?
12.7% of residents in tract 10003016309 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,574.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 10003016309?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 46th, household 18th, minority 75th, housing 78th.
Q5
Is tract 10003016309 considered part of Midvale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 10003016309 fall within Midvale (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 10003016309 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.09× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tampa, FL), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 10003016309 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 10003016309 compare to New Castle overall?
Tract 10003016309 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of New Castle at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from New Castle eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in New Castle
Top eight tracts in New Castle ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related