Tampa Eviction Risk: Moderate

Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $44,570, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The main counterweight is state political climate at 1.5/10.

The poverty rate is 34%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Running hot, economic stress reads 8.4/10. 59% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Hillsborough County average of 51.5%.

It sits 1.2 points above the Hillsborough County average of 4.2. At $1,378 a month, rents run 19% under what the rest of Tampa commands.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 479 filings here across 11 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2009, when 11.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 5.1% of renter households face a filing.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.