Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally
Blackwater Eviction Risk: Moderate , Kathleen
Tract 12105012125 · Polk, FL · pop 3,150 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
For landlords sizing up the Blackwater neighborhood of Kathleen, census tract 12105012125 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.5/10. That is riskier than about 58% of US census tracts.
About 59% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 48% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,331 a month while the average household earns $67,083 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 18% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units951
Renter share18.0%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate16.7%
Median income$67,083
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Kathleen and the region
Centroid at 28.1315, -82.0464 · click any tract to drill in
Why Blackwater scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Kathleen
4.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
16.7% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,331 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Kathleen
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Kathleen
4.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Kathleen
7.5
How Blackwater compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 70
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 79%Socioeconomic
- 94%Household composition
- 48%Racial/ethnic minority
- 22%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 292Total filings over 17 yrs
- 10.95%Avg annual filing rate
- 26.7%Peak (2001)
- 11Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 17 months.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Blackwater
What moves this score most is housing court bias at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Kathleen, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 292 eviction filings here over 17 tracked years, with about 11.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 26.7% of renter households in 2001.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 70th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12105012125
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12105012125?
Census tract 12105012125 in the Blackwater neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12105012125?
Median gross rent is $1,331/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12105012125?
16.7% of residents in tract 12105012125 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,150.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12105012125?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 94th, minority 48th, housing 22th.
Q5
Is tract 12105012125 considered part of Blackwater?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12105012125 fall within Blackwater (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12105012125?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 292 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 12105012125 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.95% of renter households, peaking at 26.7% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 12105012125 compare to Kathleen overall?
Tract 12105012125 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Kathleen at 2.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Kathleen; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Kathleen
Top eight tracts in Kathleen ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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