Auburn Park Eviction Risk: High , Chicago

SNAP participation runs 49.5% against 15.2% nationally. The severe-burden share is 34%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 9.1/10. The poverty rate is 36%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10.

Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $34,444, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Against the Cook County average of 6.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.0 points.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 25.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Average gross rent is $1,057, 27% below the Chicago average.

The filing record is not thin: 1,300 evictions over 15 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2001 at 17.7% of renter households. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Chicago. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.