Within neighborhood
25
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,113 of 84,120 nationally
Merle Hay Eviction Risk: Lower , Des Moines
Tract 19153010408 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,002 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Landlord eviction risk in census tract 19153010408 (the Merle Hay area of Des Moines, Iowa) comes in at 5.1/10, the Moderate tier. That is riskier than about 43% of US census tracts.
35% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 17% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,120 a month against an average household income of $82,522 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. Renters make up 38% of occupied homes.
Risk score
2.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units1,627
Renter share38.1%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate9.9%
Median income$82,522
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
89
th percentile
High
Within county
40
th percentile
Low
Within state
33
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Des Moines and the region
Centroid at 41.6268, -93.7107 · click any tract to drill in
Why Merle Hay scores 2.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
6.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
9.9% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,120 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
3.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
3.8
How Merle Hay compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 63
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 48%Racial/ethnic minority
- 79%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 130Total filings over 10 yrs
- 3.16%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.7%Peak (2015)
- 19Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 111% over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Merle Hay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.0%Housing insecurity
- 7.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.5%Food insecurity
- 13.3%SNAP enrollment
- 8.1%Transit barriers
- 8.8%No health insurance
- 18.4%Frequent mental distress
- 30.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Merle Hay
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 5.1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 63rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 19153010408
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153010408?
Census tract 19153010408 in the Merle Hay neighborhood scores 2.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 19153010408?
Median gross rent is $1,120/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 19153010408?
9.9% of residents in tract 19153010408 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,002.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 19153010408?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 57th, minority 48th, housing 79th.
Q5
Is tract 19153010408 considered part of Merle Hay?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153010408 fall within Merle Hay (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153010408?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 130 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153010408 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.16% of renter households, peaking at 4.7% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 19153010408 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 19153010408 compare to Des Moines overall?
Tract 19153010408 scores 2.6/10, right in line with the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 19153010408 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines
Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IA
Merle Hay
2.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · IA
19153010404
2.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · IA
Meredith
2.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · IA
19153010406
2.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · IA
19153010410
2.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · IA
19153011304
1.3
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · IA
19153010407
1.2
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · IA
19049050805
1.1
/ 10 · Very Low
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