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Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally

Merle Hay Eviction Risk: Lower , Des Moines

Tract 19153010408 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,002 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

19153010408 is a census tract in the Merle Hay area of Urbandale, IA. It scores 3.5/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,002 residents. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.2/10.

Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13% Stable renters 25% Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units1,627
Renter share38.1%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate9.9%
Median income$82,522

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 5 tracts In Merle Hay
Moderate
Within parent city
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 10 tracts In Des Moines
High
Within county
46 th percentile
Rank, 46th percentileLowHigh
#61 of 112 tracts In Polk County
Moderate
Within state
52 th percentile
Rank, 52nd percentileLowHigh
#428 of 896 tracts In Iowa
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Des Moines and the region

Centroid at 41.6268, -93.7107 · click any tract to drill in

Why Merle Hay scores 3.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
6.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
9.9% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,120 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
3.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
3.8

How Merle Hay compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Merle Hay risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.5This tracttract 0104083.4Des Moinesparent city3.8Countyavg tract in county3.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 63

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 130Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 3.16%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.7%Peak (2015)
  • 19Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 19153010408
Filings climbed 111% over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Merle Hay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Merle Hay

17% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.3/10.

Cost burden runs 35% here against 42.0% across Polk County. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.5/10.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 130 filings here across 10 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2015, when 4.7% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

In a typical year about 3.2% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #57,812 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 6.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $82,522, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 19153010408

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153010408?

Census tract 19153010408 in the Merle Hay neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 19153010408?

Median gross rent is $1,120/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 19153010408?

9.9% of residents in tract 19153010408 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,002.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 19153010408?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 57th, minority 48th, housing 79th.
Q5

Is tract 19153010408 considered part of Merle Hay?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153010408 fall within Merle Hay (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153010408?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 130 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153010408 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.16% of renter households, peaking at 4.7% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 19153010408 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 19153010408 compare to Des Moines overall?

Tract 19153010408 scores 3.5/10, right in line with the parent city of Des Moines at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 19153010408 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines

Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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