Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,899 of 84,120 nationally
Merle Hay Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines
Tract 19153000803 · Polk County, IA · pop 3,886 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
With a score of 5.2/10, tract 19153000803 in Merle Hay in Des Moines ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,886 residents. That is riskier than roughly 46% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
52% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 22% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,188 a month against an average household income of $56,967 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 41% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,886
Renter share41.4%
SVI overall0.64
Poverty rate15.3%
Median income$56,967
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
78
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Des Moines and the region
Centroid at 41.6217, -93.6970 · click any tract to drill in
Why Merle Hay scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
15.3% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$1,188 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5
How Merle Hay compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 64
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 68%Socioeconomic
- 41%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 73%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 55%Grade B
- 32%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 387Total filings over 10 yrs
- 6.81%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.4%Peak (2011)
- 42Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Merle Hay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.7%Housing insecurity
- 8.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.9%Food insecurity
- 13.9%SNAP enrollment
- 8.5%Transit barriers
- 8.5%No health insurance
- 18.9%Frequent mental distress
- 28.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Merle Hay
The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 4.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 19153000803
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153000803?
Census tract 19153000803 in the Merle Hay neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 19153000803?
Median gross rent is $1,188/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 19153000803?
15.3% of residents in tract 19153000803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,886.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 19153000803?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 64th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 41th, minority 32th, housing 73th.
Q5
Is tract 19153000803 considered part of Merle Hay?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153000803 fall within Merle Hay (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153000803?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 387 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153000803 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.81% of renter households, peaking at 9.4% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 19153000803 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 19153000803 compare to Des Moines overall?
Tract 19153000803 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 19153000803 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines
Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IA
King Irving
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Kirkwood Glen
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
19153000101
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Mondamin Presidential
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Drake Park
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Sherman Hill
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Prospect Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Capitol Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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