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Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally

Lone Oak Eviction Risk: Moderate , North Bethesda

Tract 24031704401 · Montgomery County, MD · pop 3,384 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

24031704401 is a census tract in the Lone Oak area of North Bethesda, MD. It scores 5.7/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,384 residents. 37% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 5% Owners 91%
Tract context
Occupied units1,143
Renter share8.6%
SVI overall0.10
Poverty rate3.3%
Median income$250,001

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Lone Oak
Moderate
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 12 tracts In North Bethesda
Very Low
Within county
42 th percentile
Rank, 42nd percentileLowHigh
#135 of 232 tracts In Montgomery County
Moderate
Within state
58 th percentile
Rank, 58th percentileLowHigh
#622 of 1,464 tracts In Maryland
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across North Bethesda and the region

Centroid at 39.0219, -77.1147 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lone Oak scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from North Bethesda
8.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.0
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
3.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,273 rent vs county FMR
9.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from North Bethesda
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from North Bethesda
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from North Bethesda
4.1

How Lone Oak compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lone Oak risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.7This tracttract 7044016.6North Bethesdaparent city6.1Countyavg tract in county5.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 10

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lone Oak

At $3,273 a month, rents run 49% over what the rest of North Bethesda commands. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.8/10. The voucher gap is 41.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.2/10. Running hot, supply constraint reads 9.1/10. SNAP participation runs 3.3% against 15.2% nationally.

Adults with no health insurance runs 4.3% against 11.3% nationally. On the national scale it lands near the 74th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Only 9% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $250,001, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 47% of renters.

It tracks the Montgomery County average of 6.0 closely.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 24031704401

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24031704401?

Census tract 24031704401 in the Lone Oak neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 24031704401?

Median gross rent is $3,273/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 24031704401?

3.3% of residents in tract 24031704401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,384.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 24031704401?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 10th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 34th, minority 60th, housing 16th.
Q5

Is tract 24031704401 considered part of Lone Oak?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24031704401 fall within Lone Oak (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 24031704401 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 24031704401 compare to North Bethesda overall?

Tract 24031704401 scores 5.7/10, lower than the parent city of North Bethesda at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from North Bethesda eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in North Bethesda

Top eight tracts in North Bethesda ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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