Ware Millyard Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated

SNAP participation runs 35.4% against 15.2% nationally. It sits 2.2 points above the Hampshire County average of 5.6. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.7/10. 16% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Against Hampshire County at 46.3%, 54% of renters here are cost-burdened. The poverty rate is 18%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The filing record is not thin: 501 evictions over 12 years of observation.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2010 at 6.3% of renter households.

In a typical year about 5.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 89% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the MA average is 6.2, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.