Ware Millyard Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated

SNAP participation is 35.4% of households versus 15.2% nationally. The strongest single driver of the headline number is tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.7/10.

The severe-burden share is 16%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. The poverty rate is 18%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The filing record is not thin: 501 evictions logged in this tract.

Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 7.3/10. 14.4% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

The worst year on record was 2010, when filings touched 6.3% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 3.0% in 2016, is well off that peak. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.6/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Average gross rent runs $1,009, close to the Ware average. Annual rent works out to 29% of average household income of $41,796.

One tract means one number: 7.8/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.