Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
West Side Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123037100 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 4,962 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
27123037100 is a census tract in the West Side area of St. Paul, MN. It scores 7.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,962 residents. The dominant input is local political climate at 9/10.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units2,102
Renter share55.7%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate15.3%
Median income$65,449
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
63
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
78
th percentile
High
Within state
94
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9335, -93.0922 · click any tract to drill in
Why West Side scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
15.3% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$1,261 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How West Side compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 71%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 67%Racial/ethnic minority
- 97%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 35%Grade B
- 11%Grade C
- 28%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 307Total filings over 7 yrs
- 4.65%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.6%Peak (2011)
- 34Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 17% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 377Total filings 2020-21
- 4.9Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.51×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within West Side. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.4%Housing insecurity
- 9.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.3%Food insecurity
- 14.7%SNAP enrollment
- 11.4%Transit barriers
- 11.0%No health insurance
- 18.0%Frequent mental distress
- 32.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in West Side
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.7 points.
Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 53% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Ramsey County average of 47.3%.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 307 filings here across 7 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2011, when 5.6% of renter households were served.
This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Paul. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 4.6% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 87th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 2.8 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,261, close to the St. Paul average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123037100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123037100?
Census tract 27123037100 in the West Side neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123037100?
Median gross rent is $1,261/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123037100?
15.3% of residents in tract 27123037100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,962.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123037100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 88th, minority 67th, housing 97th.
Q5
Is tract 27123037100 considered part of West Side?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123037100 fall within West Side (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123037100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 307 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123037100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.65% of renter households, peaking at 5.6% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123037100 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.51× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123037100 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123037100 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123037100 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123037100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 28% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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