Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally
Highwood Hills Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123037403 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 7,919 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 27123037403 covers part of the Highwood Hills area of St. Paul, MN, and scores 7.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,919 residents. The dominant input is local political climate at 9/10.
Risk score
7.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units2,417
Renter share52.4%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate30.3%
Median income$66,615
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
88
th percentile
High
Within county
89
th percentile
High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9262, -93.0125 · click any tract to drill in
Why Highwood Hills scores 7.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
30.3% poverty · this tract
7.6
Supply constraint
$1,228 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Highwood Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 97
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 89%Socioeconomic
- 81%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 32%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 367Total filings over 7 yrs
- 5.33%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.2%Peak (2014)
- 50Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 262Total filings 2020-21
- 3.4Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.07×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Highwood Hills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 21.6%Housing insecurity
- 15.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.1%Food insecurity
- 28.1%SNAP enrollment
- 17.2%Transit barriers
- 12.6%No health insurance
- 20.0%Frequent mental distress
- 38.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Highwood Hills
It sits 2.3 points above the Ramsey County average of 5.6. 27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10.
The poverty rate is 30%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. Food insecurity runs 32.1% against 17.8% nationally.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 367 filings here across 7 tracked years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
Filings peaked in 2014 at 6.2% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 5.3% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 90% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.7/10.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123037403
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123037403?
Census tract 27123037403 in the Highwood Hills neighborhood scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123037403?
Median gross rent is $1,228/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123037403?
30.3% of residents in tract 27123037403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,919.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123037403?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 81th, minority 82th, housing 99th.
Q5
Is tract 27123037403 considered part of Highwood Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123037403 fall within Highwood Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123037403?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 367 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123037403 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.33% of renter households, peaking at 6.2% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123037403 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.07× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123037403 struggle to pay rent?
About 21.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123037403 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123037403 scores 7.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123037403 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 32% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
South Saint Anthony Park
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Iris Park
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7.9
/ 10 · High
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