Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
The Fairways at Forsgate Eviction Risk: Elevated , Rossmoor
Tract 34023008206 ·
Middlesex County, NJ · pop 3,520 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
With a score of 7.3/10, tract 34023008206 in the The Fairways at Forsgate area of Rossmoor, NJ reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,520 residents. 74% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%Stable renters 1%Owners 84%
Tract context
Occupied units2,674
Renter share16.5%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate8.9%
Median income$51,528
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In The Fairways at Forsgate
Moderate
Within parent city
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Rossmoor
Moderate
Within county
84th percentile
#32 of 192 tracts In Middlesex County
High
Within state
74th percentile
#569 of 2,175 tracts In New Jersey
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Rossmoor and the region
Centroid at 40.3340, -74.4645 · click any tract to drill in
Why The Fairways at Forsgate scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Rossmoor
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
8.9% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,993 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Rossmoor
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Rossmoor
2.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Rossmoor
7.1
How The Fairways at Forsgate compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 49
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
46%Socioeconomic
57%Household composition
18%Racial/ethnic minority
57%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
2Total filings over 1 yrs
0.33%Avg annual filing rate
0.3%Peak (2015)
2Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
4.6%Housing insecurity
2.8%Utility-shutoff threat
7.8%Food insecurity
4.6%SNAP enrollment
4.1%Transit barriers
6.2%No health insurance
9.2%Frequent mental distress
38.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in The Fairways at Forsgate
Against Middlesex County at 44.9%, 93% of renters here are cost-burdened. The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 9.6/10. Annualized rent equals 46% of average household income of $51,528, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9/10. Against the Middlesex County average of 5.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.2/10. At $1,993 a month, rents run 20% over what the rest of Rossmoor commands.
Housing insecurity runs 4.6% against 14.2% nationally. Court records carry 2 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 2.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
Filings peaked in 2015 at 0.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 0.3% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 87th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
At 16% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 34023008206
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34023008206?
Census tract 34023008206 in the The Fairways at Forsgate neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34023008206?
Median gross rent is $1,993/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 93% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34023008206?
8.9% of residents in tract 34023008206 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,520.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34023008206?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 46th, household 57th, minority 18th, housing 57th.
Q5
Is tract 34023008206 considered part of The Fairways at Forsgate?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 34023008206 fall within The Fairways at Forsgate (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 34023008206?
Princeton eviction risk Eviction Lab recorded 2 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 34023008206 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.33% of renter households, peaking at 0.3% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 34023008206 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 34023008206 compare to Rossmoor overall?
Tract 34023008206 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Rossmoor at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rossmoor; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.