Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #9,927 of 84,120 nationally
Bay Shore Eviction Risk: Elevated , Seaside Heights
Tract 34029728004 · Ocean County, NJ · pop 506 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
34029728004 is a census tract in the Bay Shore area of Seaside Heights, NJ. It scores 7.6/10 for landlords. It is home to 506 residents. 49% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
7.6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units385
Renter share33.0%
SVI overall0.40
Poverty rate11.0%
Median income$72,240
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
77
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Seaside Heights and the region
Centroid at 39.9482, -74.0852 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bay Shore scores 7.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Seaside Heights
4.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.6
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
11.0% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$1,235 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Seaside Heights
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Seaside Heights
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Seaside Heights
9.5
How Bay Shore compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 40
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 86%Socioeconomic
- 20%Household composition
- 11%Racial/ethnic minority
- 12%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bay Shore. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.7%Housing insecurity
- 8.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.6%Food insecurity
- 10.2%SNAP enrollment
- 8.8%Transit barriers
- 13.5%No health insurance
- 16.7%Frequent mental distress
- 27.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bay Shore
The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 9.6/10. It sits 2.6 points above the Ocean County average of 5.0.
Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.6/10. Running hot, housing-court posture reads 9.5/10. At $1,235 a month, rents run 17% under what the rest of Seaside Heights commands.
On the national scale it lands near the 88th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.6/10. Statewide the NJ average is 6.0, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for about half of renters. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $72,240.
33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 34029728004
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34029728004?
Census tract 34029728004 in the Bay Shore neighborhood scores 7.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34029728004?
Median gross rent is $1,235/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34029728004?
11.0% of residents in tract 34029728004 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 506.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34029728004?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 40th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 20th, minority 11th, housing 12th.
Q5
Is tract 34029728004 considered part of Bay Shore?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 34029728004 fall within Bay Shore (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 34029728004 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 34029728004 compare to Seaside Heights overall?
Tract 34029728004 scores 7.6/10, higher than the parent city of Seaside Heights at 7.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Seaside Heights; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Seaside Heights
Top eight tracts in Seaside Heights ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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