East Aurora Eviction Risk: Moderate

Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

It sits 1.9 points below the Erie County average of 6.8. On the high side, state political climate reads 7.3/10.

SNAP participation runs 5.1% against 15.2% nationally. On the softer side, housing-court posture reads 3/10.

At $1,049 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of East Aurora commands. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Rent consumes only 15% of average household income of $86,609, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.