Forest Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , East Rochester

The severe-burden share is 32%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.

The voucher gap is 23.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Running hot, state political climate reads 7.3/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 7.3/10.

Housing insecurity runs 5.6% against 14.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

That is riskier than roughly 51% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 19% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 3.2 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. 42% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.